Steve Eisman, known in the “Big Short” for predicting the 2008 housing crash, expects the US market to continue rallying as long as
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2023-07-25 | Sign Up | View Online | Advertise
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S&P 500 4,554.64 +0.40%
Nasdaq 14,058.87 +0.19%
Dow 35,411.24 +0.52%
10-Year 3.872% +0.033%
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*All data as of the previous day’s market close.

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Markets & Economy
The US market will continue to melt up as long as there's no recession (2 min read)

Steve Eisman, known in the “Big Short” for predicting the 2008 housing crash, expects the US market to continue rallying as long as a recession is not evident. He does believe the Fed’s rate hikes could potentially trigger an economic downturn, but currently, there is no evidence of a recession. Unlike many investment firms, Eisman's firm remains fully invested but warned of the possibility of more rate hikes to come than investors anticipated, which could change the current market outlook.
Why Higher Interest Rates Haven’t Mattered Yet (3 min read)

This article suggests that the US economy has not crashed from the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes because higher yields and borrowing costs have offset each other. A large number of homeowners already had low mortgage rates before the hikes, so higher borrowing costs did not impact them significantly. Those who have paid off their mortgages or have low rates are also benefitting from higher short-term yields on their savings. Additionally, excess savings from the pandemic and pent-up demand from 2020 have contributed to the economy's resilience.
China Holds Off on Major Stimulus as It Signals Property Easing (4 min read)

The top leaders in China have signaled more support for the struggling real estate sector but did not announce large-scale stimulus for the slowing economic recovery. China’s real estate market has been declining due to government measures to control leverage. The meeting, led by President Xi Jinping, promised a "counter-cyclical" policy, indicating economic support and potential adjustments in the property sector. The markets showed limited enthusiasm for the measures as investors have been waiting for support in China’s slowing rebound momentum.
Business & Stocks
Musk risks more damage to Twitter’s business by changing app name to X (3 min read)

Elon Musk rebranded Twitter as "X" to create a super app similar to China's WeChat, offering entertainment, online shopping, and messaging. The move comes amid reported user dissatisfaction and financial struggles for the app. Analysts warn that killing the iconic Twitter brand is risky, especially with competitors like Meta’s Threads attracting users. Musk aims to turn X into an "everything app," but it will require significant investment and the current premium subscription revenue has not offset the massive advertising declines.
Big Changes Shake Up The Nasdaq 100 — Including These Surprises (3 min read)

The Nasdaq 100 went through a “special rebalance” on Monday for the second time in 25 years due to the dominance of seven stocks - Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Tesla. Surprisingly, Apple's weighting in the index only dropped slightly, while Microsoft's dropped the most. Meta was the only stock that managed to avoid significant changes as its weight was just below the threshold. Even after the rebalance, these stocks account over 40% of the index, which still poses some concentration risk.
Spotify increases prices for its premium subscription plans (2 min read)

Spotify is raising the prices of its Premium subscription plans by as much as $2 or about 20% for some plans in the US and several other countries. The company cited the evolving market landscape as the reason for the price increase and stated that it will help them continue to deliver value. Subscribers will be given a one-month grace period before the price change. Some investors were bearish on the news as Spotify stock fell 5% following the announcement.
Funds & ETFs
4 ETFs to Trade the Oil Services Rally (3 min read)

The recent rally in oil service industry stocks was driven by factors such as global oil demand, rig counts, tech rotation, and well intervention. As a result, many oil service ETFs have performed well in recent weeks. This article compares the top four ETFs focusing on this niche sector—OIH, XES, IEZ, and PXJ—and their different approaches to weighting and exposure. It argues that the oil services industry is still a relatively cheap sector with room to run in the near term.
Avantis Launches Small Cap International Stock ETF (2 min read)

Avantis launched an actively managed ETF last week called The Avantis International Small Cap Equity ETF (AVDS). It focuses on small-cap companies outside of the US and aims to capitalize on the increasing valuation gap between US and international stocks. Unlike traditional stock picking, AVDS relies on quantitative rules and factors to select stocks, excluding the bottom 20% of performers based on value and profitability metrics.
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